Tuesday, October 19, 2010

AAPL selloff and Solar Stock slide

Our short-term prediction of solar-stock-peaking has come true, with the solar ETF (TAN) dropping from $9.22 to $8.42 (-8.7%) since our prediction on Thursday morning, 3 trading-days ago.

We also noticed the same "Buy on the Rumor and Sell on the News" effect with AAPL today. Despite "blow-out earnings" that handily beat analyst expectations after the close yesterday, the stock slumped more than the market today, down -2.68% (dropping as much as -6.5% after hours following the earnings release).

How would you have known that AAPL investors were excessively-optimistic (besides the obvious mania of Apple-true-believers, who might not actually own the stock)? Glad you asked - our Stock Sentiment Cluster showed that excessive optimism going into earnings. Interestingly, there was heavy Call Option writing (selling) going into earnings yesterday as well, indicating large institutions hedging the risk of a disappointment.

Happy Investing!

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Solar Stock Slide - Buy on the Rumor and Sell on the News

We've blogged about the "Buy on the Rumor and Sell on thw News" pattern in stock prices before (in fact, I published a paper about it in the Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets).

At the moment we're seeing the peaking and beginning of a slide in Solar Stock prices (examples include ESLR and SOL). The solar ETF is TAN, and it is likely to start sliding right about now. These stock prices rose on speculation of renewed interest in the solar sector due to the Solar Power International conference starting in Los Angeles today and Solar Day on CNBC yesterday.

Happy Investing!

Saturday, October 02, 2010

MarketPsych on Public Broadacasting

MarketPsych has been busy behind the scenes, and sometimes, in the scenes - as in these recent appearances on Nightly Business Review segment "Your Mind and Your Money" with Tom Hudson and on NPR's Marketplace Money with Tess Vigelund which airs this weekend - in an effort to promote their new book. Lots more to come!